A decade following the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that polarised the country and caused chaos, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the political, financial and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say this point is approaching, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has masked the absence of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has taken place in universities but very few government figures or campaigners are willing to participate with the basics. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unification or the status quo. Both writes two articles that seek impartiality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling financial and societal statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates encompass identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Debate indicates an recognition of the notion that there might be valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they prefer unity but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to reflect unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government should work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified arguments, he said. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and somebody will eventually lose but each side has got important lessons to acquire from the other's positions."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster should join the debate, said O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."
