It was 60 days in the past when the young forward found himself on the pitch at Sunderland, appearing bewildered while the Villa manager admonished him over missing a pass in behind. Back then, as the club failed to win in six, doubts remained if his performances were an indicator or the source of Villa's more general malaise.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
In the latest match, though, the touchline reaction was entirely decidedly more positive. When the in-form star drilled in his second to reclaim Villa's lead, the boss tore off his winter coat, opened his arms and roared. The Birmingham club continued to ten wins in a row and having failed to win their initial half-dozen games, find themselves just three points off the leaders Arsenal.
Is Aston Villa Legitimate Challengers?
That’s a particularly tough question to resolve. History, the traditional standing of Villa, suggests not. Moreover, their performances haven't been completely commanding during this run, while the wins have accumulated.
Per Opta, twice all season has the team registered an xG notably superior than their opponents. For a team who have just won 10 in a row, Villa seem strangely fragile – but at the moment the fine lines are swinging for them.
The Winning Formula
Their recent policy seems to be to engage in a shootout with an opponent before hoping Rogers to bail them out with a couple of clinical strikes. It happened away to Leeds, it happened against West Ham, and again versus Manchester United.
Rogers' first goal stemmed from a superb shot, arced precisely inside the post from the corner of the box. His brace-completing goal proved to be a somewhat messier replica of the opener as he pounced on a pass from Watkins.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
Is It Sustainable?
Logic says not. During the latest victory, the opposition registered a greater number of attempts and more shots on target. Villa have triumphed in eight consecutive games by just one goal. The defence has been breached in nearly all of those matches.
Regression to the mean may well be the biggest rival the club will encounter over the coming weeks. Rogers, in all likelihood, cannot keep on drilling the football past despairing goalkeepers indefinitely.
Potential for Growth
Maybe there exists another reality where, instead of luck running out, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Key players may yet return to peak condition.
- The centre-forward may begin to scoring again.
- The winger may rediscover the force he was during his peak.
- The injured centre-backs will eventually regain fitness, strengthening a periodically leaky defence.
Maybe within that lies the potential of a title challenge, but they surely cannot keep relying on Morgan Rogers.
Enjoying the Ride
Yet, this is a surprise. It seemed improbable the team would sit in the top three for the holidays. And without a doubt earlier this season, nobody thought the midfielder by the end of the year would be spearheading a championship pursuit and appearing as a vital Three Lions star.
This winning streak must be cherished exactly since it feels so unlikely. When Rogers faced the North End at the final whistle leading the celebrations, he seemed to be thoroughly enjoying it. A feeling he has rightly earned. These spells are rare in football and ought to be celebrated.
